Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 9.081572e-05 0.000107 0.000125 0.000145 0.000168 0.000192 0.000219
2025-01-26 6.438787e-05 0.000086 0.000110 0.000139 0.000174 0.000213 0.000259
2025-02-02 5.371963e-05 0.000077 0.000105 0.000141 0.000183 0.000233 0.000293
2025-02-09 4.348056e-05 0.000068 0.000099 0.000139 0.000190 0.000250 0.000324
2025-02-16 3.874871e-05 0.000065 0.000099 0.000144 0.000203 0.000273 0.000363
2025-02-23 3.320575e-05 0.000060 0.000095 0.000145 0.000211 0.000291 0.000395
2025-03-02 2.664579e-05 0.000052 0.000088 0.000140 0.000210 0.000297 0.000411
2025-03-09 2.193587e-05 0.000046 0.000083 0.000137 0.000212 0.000306 0.000432
2025-03-16 1.856096e-05 0.000043 0.000080 0.000137 0.000216 0.000318 0.000456
2025-03-23 1.611706e-05 0.000040 0.000078 0.000138 0.000223 0.000334 0.000484
2025-03-30 1.351608e-05 0.000036 0.000075 0.000136 0.000226 0.000344 0.000506
2025-04-06 1.090561e-05 0.000032 0.000070 0.000133 0.000225 0.000350 0.000522
2025-04-13 9.437230e-06 0.000031 0.000070 0.000136 0.000235 0.000370 0.000559
2025-04-20 6.970072e-06 0.000026 0.000064 0.000131 0.000233 0.000375 0.000575
2025-04-27 5.758793e-06 0.000024 0.000063 0.000132 0.000240 0.000391 0.000606
2025-05-04 4.517098e-06 0.000022 0.000060 0.000130 0.000243 0.000402 0.000632
2025-05-11 4.023959e-06 0.000021 0.000061 0.000135 0.000255 0.000426 0.000674
2025-05-18 3.301888e-06 0.000020 0.000060 0.000136 0.000262 0.000443 0.000707
2025-05-25 2.266754e-06 0.000017 0.000055 0.000131 0.000259 0.000445 0.000719
2025-06-01 1.616065e-06 0.000015 0.000052 0.000128 0.000259 0.000452 0.000739
2025-06-08 1.189506e-06 0.000014 0.000050 0.000128 0.000262 0.000464 0.000765
2025-06-15 9.168410e-07 0.000013 0.000049 0.000129 0.000269 0.000479 0.000796
2025-06-22 6.298113e-07 0.000011 0.000047 0.000128 0.000271 0.000489 0.000820